Ricardian Equivalence, Foreign Debt and Sovereign Default Risk

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

We study the impact of sovereign solvency on the private-public savings offset. Using data on 80 economies for 1989–2018, we find robust evidence for a U-shaped pattern in the private-public savings offset in sovereign credit ratings. While the 1:1 savings offset is observed at intermediate levels of sovereign solvency, fiscal deficits are not offset by private savings at extremely low and high levels of sovereign solvency. Particularly, the U-shaped pattern is more pronounced for countries with high levels of foreign ownership of government debt. The U-shaped pattern is an emerging market phenomenon; additionally, it is confirmed when considering foreign currency rating and external public debt, but not for domestic currency rating and domestic public debt. For considerable foreign ownership of sovereign bonds, sovereign default constitutes a net wealth gain for domestic consumers.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)21-49
Number of pages29
Journal International Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization : IJEBO
Volume197
Issue number197
Publication statusPublished - May 2022
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

Scopus 85125908067
Mendeley 650d50bb-aeff-3992-a522-80d384fa3182

Keywords

Keywords

  • Fiscal policy, Sovereign default risk, Emerging markets, External public debt, Private saving, Ricardian equivalence

Library keywords