Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • G. Myhre - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), University of Oslo (Author)
  • K. P. Shine - , University of Reading (Author)
  • G. Rädel - , University of Reading (Author)
  • M. Gauss - , University of Oslo, Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Author)
  • I. S.A. Isaksen - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), University of Oslo (Author)
  • Q. Tang - , University of California at Irvine (Author)
  • M. J. Prather - , University of California at Irvine (Author)
  • J. E. Williams - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Author)
  • P. van Velthoven - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Author)
  • O. Dessens - , University of Cambridge (Author)
  • B. Koffi - , Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (Author)
  • S. Szopa - , Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (Author)
  • P. Hoor - , Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Author)
  • V. Grewe - , German Aerospace Center (DLR) (Author)
  • J. Borken-Kleefeld - , German Aerospace Center (DLR) - Berlin-Adlershof (Author)
  • T. K. Berntsen - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), University of Oslo (Author)
  • J. S. Fuglestvedt - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) (Author)

Abstract

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31 mW m-2) compared to SHIP (24 mW m-2) and AIR (17 mW m-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13) (one standard deviation) mW m-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mW m-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mW m-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)387-394
Number of pages8
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume45
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2011
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5465-8559/work/150883966

Keywords

Keywords

  • Aviation, GTP, GWP, Radiative forcing, Road transport, Shipping