Predicting railway wheel wear under uncertainty of wear coefficient, using universal kriging

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Marzia A. Cremona - , Polytechnic University of Milan (Author)
  • Binbin Liu - , Polytechnic University of Milan (Author)
  • Yang Hu - , Polytechnic University of Milan (Author)
  • Stefano Bruni - , Polytechnic University of Milan (Author)
  • Roger Lewis - , University of Sheffield (Author)

Abstract

Railway wheel wear prediction is essential for reliability and optimal maintenance strategies of railway systems. Indeed, an accurate wear prediction can have both economic and safety implications. In this paper we propose a novel methodology, based on Archard's equation and a local contact model, to forecast the volume of material worn and the corresponding wheel remaining useful life (RUL). A universal kriging estimate of the wear coefficient is embedded in our method. Exploiting the dependence of wear coefficient measurements with similar contact pressure and sliding speed, we construct a continuous wear coefficient map that proves to be more informative than the ones currently available in the literature. Moreover, this approach leads to an uncertainty analysis on the wear coefficient. As a consequence, we are able to construct wear prediction intervals that provide reasonable guidelines in practice.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)49-59
Number of pages11
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume154
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2016
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0003-2482-8729/work/199964216

Keywords

Keywords

  • Remaining useful life, Universal kriging, Wear coefficient, Wear prediction