Perfict: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Eliot J B McIntire - , Université Laval (Author)
  • Alex M Chubaty - , FOR-CAST Research & Analytics, Calgary, AB, Canada. (Author)
  • Steven G Cumming - , Université Laval (Author)
  • Dave Andison - , Bandaloop Landscape-Ecosystem Services Ltd., Nelson, British Columbia, Canada. (Author)
  • Ceres Barros - , University of British Columbia (Author)
  • Céline Boisvenue - , University of British Columbia (Author)
  • Samuel Haché - , Environment and Climate Change Canada (Author)
  • Yong Luo - , Ministry of Forests British Columbia (Author)
  • Tatiane Micheletti - , University of British Columbia (Author)
  • Frances E C Stewart - , Wilfrid Laurier University (Author)

Abstract

Making predictions from ecological models-and comparing them to data-offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science-policy integration.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1345-1351
Number of pages7
JournalEcology letters
Volume25
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2022
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

PubMed 35315961
PubMedCentral PMC9310704
Scopus 85127354889

Keywords

Keywords

  • Ecology, Models, Theoretical