Pan-European maps and models of current and future tree species distributions and their growth potential

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Anna Wöhlbrandt - , Chair of Silviculture, State Forest of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Author)
  • Anabel Onay - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Ute Bachmann-Gigl - , Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (Author)
  • Wolfgang Falk - , Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (Author)
  • Christian Temperli - , Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Author)
  • Samuel Aspalter - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Debojyoti Chakraborty - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Silvio Schüler - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Johannes Breidenbach - , Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (Author)
  • Jonas Fridman - , Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (Author)
  • Miriam Isaac-Renton - , Natural Resources Canada (Author)
  • Vladimír Šebeň - , National Forest Centre (Author)
  • Mitja Skudnik - , University of Ljubljana, Slovenian Forestry Institute (Author)
  • Tzvetan Zlatanov - , Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Dominik Thom - , Chair of Silviculture (Author)
  • Eric A. Thurm - , State Forest of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Author)

Abstract

Amid increasing temperatures and extended drought periods, forest managers require comprehensive information regarding the suitability of various tree species under changing climatic conditions. To address this need, we assembled a unique dataset spanning Europe, incorporating multiple data sources such as national forest inventories, forest management plans, and data from ICP Forests. Our database ultimately included over six million individual trees across 860,000 forest plots throughout Europe. Using this extensive dataset, we developed Species Distribution Models (SDM) for 30 and Site Index Models (SIM) for 25 European tree species, the latter limited by data availability. Both model types were used to generate predictions at a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 under climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The model predictions aim to estimate the top height and assess climate suitability across Europe under future climate conditions. One potential application of these models is in a decision support system (DSS) to inform tree species selection and management strategies in the context of climate change. Provided are the models, prediction outputs, and supporting information, as the underlying database is restricted by data use agreements.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number113027
JournalData in brief
Volume67
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495772

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • Climate change, Climate suitability, Europe, Reforestation, Site index model, Species distribution model, Top height, Tree species selection