Optimizing carbon emission paths based on equity: Strategies for promoting coordinated regional development in China

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Yan Bu - , Harbin Engineering University (Author)
  • Bole Zhang - , Harbin Engineering University (Author)
  • Jinhong Bai - , Central South University (Author)
  • Xun Zhang - , Harbin Engineering University (Author)
  • Ziyu Jiang - , Harbin Engineering University (Author)
  • Mingye Ai - , Harbin Engineering University (Author)
  • Dominik Möst - , Chair of Business Administration, esp Energy Economics (Author)

Abstract

China's climate actions through energy transition have exacerbated regional disparities in the energy-economy-environment (3E) system. This study introduces regional equity metrics (Gini coefficient and Theil index) into the 3E framework, establishing a multi-objective optimization model to coordinate carbon reduction and regional development during 2021–2030. Four strategies were developed with key findings: All scenarios reduce regional inequality, with economic output Gini coefficient declining by 8.73–9.52 %, energy intensity Gini by 28.35–44.2 %, and carbon intensity Gini by 8.77–14.54 %, while achieving carbon peaking. China requires 5.1 % annual GDP growth with provincial target adjustments. Spatial analysis identifies critical provinces for energy transition (Beijing, Shanghai, Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia) and carbon mitigation (Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan), revealing their disproportional impacts on national targets. The comprehensive strategy proves most cost-effective, reducing emissions at 144.91 yuan/ton while generating 104.59 trillion yuan GDP (2005 prices). Its provincial quota allocation mechanism optimally balances equity and efficiency. This study provides a replicable framework for reconciling climate targets with regional equity, offering critical insights for China's coordinated transition.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number101411
JournalSustainable Futures
Volume10
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-7170-3596/work/196677576

Keywords

Keywords

  • Carbon emission reduction, China, Energy-economy-environment system, Multi-objective optimization model, Regional coordinated development, Regional inequality