On the Foundations of Cycles in Bayesian Networks

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Contributors

Abstract

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a probabilistic graphical model widely used for representing expert knowledge and reasoning under uncertainty. Traditionally, they are based on directed acyclic graphs that capture dependencies between random variables. However, directed cycles can naturally arise when cross-dependencies between random variables exist, e.g., for modeling feedback loops. Existing methods to deal with such cross-dependencies usually rely on reductions to BNs without cycles. These approaches are fragile to generalize, since their justifications are intermingled with additional knowledge about the application context. In this paper, we present a foundational study regarding semantics for cyclic BNs that are generic and conservatively extend the cycle-free setting. First, we propose constraint-based semantics that specify requirements for full joint distributions over a BN to be consistent with the local conditional probabilities and independencies. Second, two kinds of limit semantics that formalize infinite unfolding approaches are introduced and shown to be computable by a Markov chain construction.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPrinciples of Systems Design
EditorsJean-François Raskin, Krishnendu Chatterjee, Laurent Doyen, Rupak Majumdar
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
Pages343-363
Number of pages21
ISBN (electronic)978-3-031-22337-2
ISBN (print)978-3-031-22336-5
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume13660 LNCS
ISSN0302-9743

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5321-9343/work/160951231
ORCID /0000-0002-0645-1078/work/160953466

Keywords