Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Benjamin Schäfer - , Chair of Network Dynamics (cfaed), Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (Author)
  • Christian Beck - , Queen Mary University of London (Author)
  • Kazuyuki Aihara - , The University of Tokyo (Author)
  • Dirk Witthaut - , Jülich Research Centre, University of Cologne (Author)
  • Marc Timme - , Chair of Network Dynamics (cfaed), Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (Author)

Abstract

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)119-126
Number of pages8
JournalNature energy
Volume3
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2018
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5956-3137/work/142242435