Nomogram Underestimates 10-year Survival in Healthy Men Selected for Radical Prostatectomy at Age 70 Years or Older

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Michael Froehner - , University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Department of Urology (Author)
  • Rainer Koch - , University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Institute for Medical Informatics and Biometry (Author)
  • Rainer J. Litz - , University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine (Author)
  • Manfred P. Wirth - , University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Department of Urology (Author)

Abstract

Objectives: To externally review a nomogram developed to predict the 10-year survival probability of men selected for radical prostatectomy. Methods: A total of 1910 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy from 1992 to 2004 were studied. The mean age was 64.2 years; the mean follow-up for the surviving patients was 6.3 years. The patients were classified according to age and the Charlson comorbidity score. The 10-year survival probability was estimated for each individual patient, applying a recently published nomogram incorporating these 2 variables. The survival rates estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the mean values of the nomogram-predicted survival probabilities were compared using 1-sample Wald tests. Subgroup analyses were done after stratification by age and Charlson score. Results: Even including the prostate cancer-related mortality (accounting for 5.1% at 10 years), the 10-year overall survival rate in our sample was somewhat greater than predicted by the nomogram (84.9% vs 81.9%, P = .0222). Subgroup analyses revealed that this difference was attributable to a greater than predicted survival in patients with a Charlson score of 0 and aged ≥70 years (87.9% vs 74.7%, P < .0001). In contrast, in the other subgroups, the predicted and Kaplan-Meier estimated survival rates did not differ meaningfully. Conclusions: Clinicians using this nomogram should be aware of a possible underestimation of survival in healthy men aged ≥70 years selected for radical prostatectomy.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)610-613
Number of pages4
JournalUrology
Volume73
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2009
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 19167030

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas