The potential utilisation of natural regeneration of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) for forest conversion has received little attention to date. Ecological knowledge is necessary to understand and predict successful natural regeneration of beech. The objective of this study was to improve understanding of what drives the occurrence of beech regeneration and, once regeneration is present, what drives its density. In the study, we utilised a forest inventory dataset provided by Sachsenforst, the state forestry service of Saxony, Germany. The dataset was derived from 8725 permanent plots. Zero-altered negative binomial models (ZANB) with spatial random effects were used to analyse factors influencing occurrence and density simultaneously. The results provided by the spatial ZANB models revealed that the probability of the occurrence of beech regeneration is highly dependent on seed availability, i.e. dependent on source trees in close proximity to a plot. The probability of beech regeneration rises with the increasing diameter of a potential seed tree and decreases with increasing distance to the nearest potential seed source. The occurrence of regeneration is affected by overstorey composition and competition exerted by spruce regeneration. Where sites are affected by groundwater or temporary waterlogging, the impact on the occurrence of regeneration is negative. Although distance to the nearest potential seed source has an influence on occurrence, this variable exerts no influence on density. A high regeneration density arises in conjunction with a high beech basal area in the overstorey. Beech regeneration density, but not occurrence, is negatively affected by browsing intensity. These variables can be used to predict the occurrence and density of beech regeneration in space to a high level of precision. The established statistical tool can be used for decision-making when planning forest conversion using natural regeneration.