Measuring Trump: The Volfefe Index and its impact on European financial markets

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

In this study, we examine the predictive power of the recently constructed Volfefe Index, the quantification of the tweeting activity of U.S. president Donald J. Trump, on the dynamics of European stock markets. After controlling for a set of macroeconomic and financial factors, we show that the Trump Tweet factor contributes to the prediction of European stock market returns. The results obtained from a rolling-window regression model indicate that the relationship between the Volfefe Index and European stock market returns is heterogeneous and time-varying. These dynamics coincide surprisingly well with a series of presidential tweets, identifying the directional effect of the Trump Twitter factor.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number101447
JournalFinance research letters
Volume38
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • Donald Trump, European Financial Markets, Sentiment, Twitter, Volfefe Index