Measuring Trump: The Volfefe Index and its impact on European financial markets
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
In this study, we examine the predictive power of the recently constructed Volfefe Index, the quantification of the tweeting activity of U.S. president Donald J. Trump, on the dynamics of European stock markets. After controlling for a set of macroeconomic and financial factors, we show that the Trump Tweet factor contributes to the prediction of European stock market returns. The results obtained from a rolling-window regression model indicate that the relationship between the Volfefe Index and European stock market returns is heterogeneous and time-varying. These dynamics coincide surprisingly well with a series of presidential tweets, identifying the directional effect of the Trump Twitter factor.
Details
Original language | English |
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Article number | 101447 |
Journal | Finance research letters |
Volume | 38 |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2021 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- Donald Trump, European Financial Markets, Sentiment, Twitter, Volfefe Index