LIONS PREY: A New Logistic Scoring System for the Prediction of Malignant Pulmonary Nodules

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Fabian Doerr - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Annika Giese - , Vinzenz Pallotti Hospital (Author)
  • Katja Höpker - , University of Cologne (Author)
  • Hruy Menghesha - , Helios Klinikum Bonn, University of Bonn (Author)
  • Georg Schlachtenberger - , University of Cologne (Author)
  • Konstantinos Grapatsas - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Natalie Baldes - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Christian J. Baldus - , University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Institute and Polyclinic of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology (Author)
  • Lars Hagmeyer - , Bethanien Hospital (Author)
  • Hazem Fallouh - , University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (Author)
  • Daniel Pinto dos Santos - , University of Cologne, University Hospital Frankfurt (Author)
  • Edward M. Bender - , Stanford University (Author)
  • Alexander Quaas - , University of Cologne (Author)
  • Matthias Heldwein - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Thorsten Wahlers - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Hubertus Hautzel - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Kaid Darwiche - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Christian Taube - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Martin Schuler - , University of Duisburg-Essen, National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT) West (Author)
  • Khosro Hekmat - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Servet Bölükbas - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)

Abstract

Objectives: Classifying radiologic pulmonary lesions as malignant is challenging. Scoring systems like the Mayo model lack precision in predicting the probability of malignancy. We developed the logistic scoring system ‘LIONS PREY’ (Lung lesION Score PREdicts malignancY), which is superior to existing models in its precision in determining the likelihood of malignancy. Methods: We evaluated all patients that were presented to our multidisciplinary team between January 2013 and December 2020. Availability of pathological results after resection or CT-/EBUS-guided sampling was mandatory for study inclusion. Two groups were formed: Group A (malignant nodule; n = 238) and Group B (benign nodule; n = 148). Initially, 22 potential score parameters were derived from the patients’ medical histories. Results: After uni- and multivariate analysis, we identified the following eight parameters that were integrated into a scoring system: (1) age (Group A: 64.5 ± 10.2 years vs. Group B: 61.6 ± 13.8 years; multivariate p-value: 0.054); (2) nodule size (21.8 ± 7.5 mm vs. 18.3 ± 7.9 mm; p = 0.051); (3) spiculation (73.1% vs. 41.9%; p = 0.024); (4) solidity (84.9% vs. 62.8%; p = 0.004); (5) size dynamics (6.4 ± 7.7 mm/3 months vs. 0.2 ± 0.9 mm/3 months; p < 0.0001); (6) smoking history (92.0% vs. 43.9%; p < 0.0001); (7) pack years (35.1 ± 19.1 vs. 21.3 ± 18.8; p = 0.079); and (8) cancer history (34.9% vs. 24.3%; p = 0.052). Our model demonstrated superior precision to that of the Mayo score (p = 0.013) with an overall correct classification of 96.0%, a calibration (observed/expected-ratio) of 1.1, and a discrimination (ROC analysis) of AUC (95% CI) 0.94 (0.92–0.97). Conclusions: Focusing on essential parameters, LIONS PREY can be easily and reproducibly applied based on computed tomography (CT) scans. Multidisciplinary team members could use it to facilitate decision making. Patients may find it easier to consent to surgery knowing the likelihood of pulmonary malignancy. The LIONS PREY app is available for free on Android and iOS devices.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number729
JournalCancers
Volume16
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • logistic scoring system, malignancy, pulmonary lesion, smartphone