Knowledge Adaption for Demand Prediction based on Multi-task Memory Neural Network

Research output: Contribution to book/conference proceedings/anthology/reportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Can Li - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Lei Bai - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Wei Liu - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Lina Yao - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • S. Travis Waller - , Chair of Transport Modelling and Simulation, University of New South Wales (Author)

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting of different public transport modes (e.g., buses and light rails) is essential for public service operation. However, the development level of various modes often varies significantly, which makes it hard to predict the demand of the modes with insufficient knowledge and sparse station distribution (i.e., station-sparse mode). Intuitively, different public transit modes may exhibit shared demand patterns temporally and spatially in a city. As such, we propose to enhance the demand prediction of station-sparse modes with the data from station-intensive mode and design a Memory-Augmented Multi-task Re current Network (MATURE) to derive the transferable demand patterns from each mode and boost the prediction of station-sparse modes through adapting the relevant patterns from the station-intensive mode. Specifically, MATURE comprises three components: 1) a memory-augmented recurrent network for strengthening the ability to capture the long-short term information and storing temporal knowledge of each transit mode; 2) a knowledge adaption module to adapt the relevant knowledge from a station-intensive source to station-sparse sources; 3) a multi-task learning framework to incorporate all the information and forecast the demand of multiple modes jointly. The experimental results on a real-world dataset covering four public transport modes demonstrate that our model can promote the demand forecasting performance for the station-sparse modes.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCIKM 2020 - Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery
Pages715-724
Number of pages10
ISBN (electronic)9781450368599
Publication statusPublished - 19 Oct 2020
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesCIKM: Conference on Information and Knowledge Management

Conference

Title29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
Abbreviated titleCIKM 2020
Duration19 - 23 October 2020
CityVirtual, Online
CountryIreland

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543684

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • demand prediction, memory-based recurrent network, multi-task learning