Knowledge adaptation with model sharing for passenger demand forecasting

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Can Li - , Tongji University (Author)
  • Lei Bai - , Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (Author)
  • Lina Yao - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • S. Travis Waller - , Chair of Transport Modelling and Simulation (Author)
  • Wei Liu - , Hong Kong Polytechnic University (Author)

Abstract

Accurate transport demand forecasting can benefit from multimodal data, yet practical challenges arise when different institutions hold separate datasets and cannot share them directly. While institutions may not share data directly, they may share models trained by their data, where such models cannot be used to identify exact information from their datasets. In this context, we propose a Knowledge Adaptation Demand Forecasting (KADF) framework that leverages pre-trained models from one transport mode (source) to forecast demand for another (target), without direct data sharing. The framework captures shared travel patterns across modes through a knowledge adaptation strategy, separating target-mode data into individual and shared components. A pre-trained source model transfers generalized knowledge to improve target-mode predictions. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that KADF outperforms baseline and state-of-the-art models, demonstrating the effectiveness of knowledge transfer without compromising data privacy. This approach supports collaborative forecasting in a decentralized data environment. .

Details

Original languageEnglish
JournalTransportmetrica A: Transport Science
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 5 May 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/214456906

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • knowledge adaptation, model sharing, Multimodal demand forecasting