Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Jakob Runge - , German Aerospace Center (DLR), Imperial College London (Author)
  • Sebastian Bathiany - , Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Erik Bollt - , Clarkson University (Author)
  • Gustau Camps-Valls - , University of Valencia (Author)
  • Dim Coumou - , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Ethan Deyle - , University of California at San Diego (Author)
  • Clark Glymour - , Carnegie Mellon University (Author)
  • Marlene Kretschmer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Miguel D. Mahecha - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Jordi Muñoz-Marí - , University of Valencia (Author)
  • Egbert H. van Nes - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Jonas Peters - , University of Copenhagen (Author)
  • Rick Quax - , University of Amsterdam (Author)
  • Markus Reichstein - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Marten Scheffer - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Bernhard Schölkopf - , Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems (Author)
  • Peter Spirtes - , Carnegie Mellon University (Author)
  • George Sugihara - , University of California at San Diego (Author)
  • Jie Sun - , Clarkson University (Author)
  • Kun Zhang - , Carnegie Mellon University (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , ETH Zurich, University of Bern (Author)

Abstract

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number2553
JournalNature communications
Volume10
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2019
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

PubMed 31201306