Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, University of Reading (Author)
  • Carlo De Michele - , Polytechnic University of Milan (Author)
  • Colin Manning - , Newcastle University (Author)
  • Anaïs Couasnon - , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) (Author)
  • Andreia F.S. Ribeiro - , ETH Zurich, University of Lisbon (Author)
  • Alexandre M. Ramos - , University of Lisbon (Author)
  • Edoardo Vignotto - , University of Geneva (Author)
  • Ana Bastos - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Suzana Blesić - , University of Belgrade (Author)
  • Fabrizio Durante - , University of Salento (Author)
  • John Hillier - , Loughborough University (Author)
  • Sérgio C. Oliveira - , University of Lisbon (Author)
  • Joaquim G. Pinto - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Elisa Ragno - , Delft University of Technology (Author)
  • Pauline Rivoire - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Kate Saunders - , Queensland University of Technology (Author)
  • Karin van der Wiel - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Author)
  • Wenyan Wu - , University of Melbourne (Author)
  • Tianyi Zhang - , CAS - Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, University of Bern (Author)

Abstract

Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2021EF002340
JournalEarth's Future
Volume9
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2021
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • climate change, compound events, environmental risk, guidelines, multidisciplinary, typology