Global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for design parameters of shallow geothermal systems

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Simon Richter - , Leipzig University of Applied Sciences (Author)
  • Katrin Lubashevsky - , Department of Distributed and Data Intensive Computing (VDR), Leipzig University of Applied Sciences (Author)
  • Jakob Randow - , Chair of Applied Environmental Systems Analysis, Leipzig University of Applied Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Steve Henker - , geoENERGIE Konzept GmbH (Author)
  • Jörg Buchwald - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Anke Bucher - , Leipzig University of Applied Sciences (Author)

Abstract

To improve the design process of geothermal systems, it is important to know which design parameters particularly affect the performance of the system. This article presents investigations on design parameters for borehole heat exchangers in the shallow subsurface. The study is based on numerical simulations with one double U-tube borehole heat exchanger and approximated models obtained using machine learning. As a result of the global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters are identified and their respective influence on the performance of a borehole heat exchanger is compared. For example, according to this analysis, the three parameters with the highest sensitivity are the initial temperature, the heat demand and the share of the borehole heat exchanger that is surrounded by groundwater flow. Finally, the effects of uncertainties in the parameters identified as relevant for the design of a borehole heat exchanger are considered in an uncertainty quantification for a fictitious site. Uncertainties for regulatory compliance with respect to temperature limits as well as a large probability of oversizing the system were identified for the considered example. The results of the exemplary uncertainty quantification indicate that it has the potential to be a useful tool for planning practice.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number8
JournalGeothermal energy
Volume12
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • Borehole heat exchanger, Ground source heat pump, Machine learning, Monte Carlo simulation, Numerical simulation, OpenGeoSys, Sensitivity analysis, Shallow geothermal exploitation, Sobol’ indices, Uncertainty quantification