Global lake anoxia is projected to intensify under climate change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Lipa G. T. Nkwalale - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Karsten Rinke - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Johannes Feldbauer - , Chair of Limnology (Author)
  • Jorrit P. Mesman - , Uppsala University (Author)
  • Tuba Bucak - , Aarhus University (Author)
  • Tom Shatwell - , Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (Author)
  • Daniel Mercado-Bettin - , Centre for Advanced Studies (Author)
  • Robert Ladwig - , Aarhus University (Author)

Abstract

Lake ecosystems are increasingly affected by climate warming, which alters water temperature and seasonal layering, with consequences for water quality and ecosystem functioning. Oxygen in deeper waters is essential for aquatic life and nutrient cycling, but may decline as warming strengthens stratification, reducing vertical mixing while biological activity continues to consume oxygen. Here, we apply a numerical model of oxygen depletion, driven by thermal dynamics from an ensemble of three lake and five climate models, to project deep-water oxygen changes in 73 globally distributed lakes from 2015 to 2099. Under a high-end climate change scenario, oxygen depletion is projected to become more frequent and prolonged, particularly in nutrient-rich lakes, where many are expected to experience extended oxygen-free conditions. Less nutrient-rich lakes show smaller but increasing oxygen declines. These results suggest that nutrient reductions could help sustain oxygen conditions, although continued warming is likely to increase ecological stress.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number86
JournalCommunications Sustainability
Volume1
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 23 May 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

Mendeley a0655187-ae81-31bc-82f5-58b529a730b1

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals