Extreme value methods for estimating rare events in Utopia

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Lídia Maria André - (Author)
  • Ryan Campbell - (Author)
  • Eleanor D’Arcy - (Author)
  • Aiden Farrell - (Author)
  • Dáire Healy - (Author)
  • Lydia Kakampakou - (Author)
  • Conor Murphy - (Author)
  • Callum John Rowlandson Murphy-Barltrop - , Chair of Applied Stochastics, Chair of Probability Theory (Author)
  • Matthew Speers - (Author)

Abstract

To capture the extremal behaviour of complex environmental phenomena in practice, flexible techniques for modelling tail behaviour are required. In this paper, we introduce a variety of such methods, which were used by the Lancopula Utopiversity team to tackle the EVA (2023) Conference Data Challenge. This data challenge was split into four challenges, labelled C1-C4. Challenges C1 and C2 comprise univariate problems, where the goal is to estimate extreme quantiles for a non-stationary time series exhibiting several complex features. For these, we propose a flexible modelling technique, based on generalised additive models, with diagnostics indicating generally good performance for the observed data. Challenges C3 and C4 concern multivariate problems where the focus is on estimating joint probabilities. For challenge C3, we propose an extension of available models in the multivariate literature and use this framework to estimate joint probabilities in the presence of non-stationary dependence. Finally, for challenge C4, which concerns a 50-dimensional random vector, we employ a clustering technique to achieve dimension reduction and use a conditional modelling approach to estimate extremal probabilities across independent groups of variables.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-23
Number of pages23
JournalExtremes : statistical theory and applications in science, engineering and economics
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords