Explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally alter epidemic dynamics. Here we reveal how such interventions modify the type of phase transition. In particular, we uncover three distinct types of explosive phase transitions for epidemic dynamics with capacity-limited interventions. Depending on the capacity limit, interventions may (i) leave the standard second order phase transition unchanged but exponentially suppress the probability of large outbreaks, (ii) induce a first-order discontinuous transition to macroscopic outbreaks, or (iii) cause a secondary explosive yet continuous third-order transition. These insights highlight inherent limitations in predicting and containing epidemic outbreaks. More generally our study offers a cornerstone example of a third-order explosive phase transition in complex systems.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number04LT02
JournalJournal of Physics: Complexity
Volume3
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2022
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5956-3137/work/161890555

Keywords

Keywords

  • epidemic dynamics, explosive transitions, phase transitions, SIR model, third-order transition

Library keywords