Experience curves in energy models-lessons learned from the REFLEX project

Research output: Contribution to book/Conference proceedings/Anthology/ReportChapter in book/Anthology/ReportContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

The consideration of technological learning in energy system models is of crucial importance as modeling future energy pathways across several sectors by considering cost developments influences model results significantly. Implementing experience curves in energy system models is one of few methods to consider the relation between cumulative installed capacity deployment and unit cost reductions of a technology. In this chapter the endogenous and exogenous approach of implementing technological learning in different energy system models are compared and analyzed in detail. Therefore the corresponding strengths and limitations of these approaches are encountered as well as possible solutions to overcome these constraints are estimated. To determine the influence of uncertainty in experience curves, sensitivity analyses with three different bottom-up models are conducted. The analysis of the literature and the lessons learned from the REFLEX project reveal that the endogenous approach is feasible, especially for top-down models but related to several challenges. Thus a balance between modeling accuracy and increasing complexity needs to be maintained while interpreting modeling results carefully.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTechnological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System
PublisherElsevier
Pages259-279
Number of pages21
ISBN (electronic)9780128187623
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-7170-3596/work/142241593
ORCID /0000-0003-2005-4316/work/142241849

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • Endogenous learning, Energy system models, Exogenous learning, Experience curve implementation, Lessons learned