Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Dennis Rödder - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • A. Michelle Lawing - , University of Tennessee, Knoxville (Author)
  • Morris Flecks - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Faraham Ahmadzadeh - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Johannes Dambach - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Jan O. Engler - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity, Trier University (Author)
  • Jan Christian Habel - , Trier University (Author)
  • Timo Hartmann - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • David Hörnes - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Flora Ihlow - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Kathrin Schidelko - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Darius Stiels - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • P. David Polly - , Indiana University Bloomington (Author)

Abstract

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere72855
JournalPloS one
Volume8
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - 9 Oct 2013
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

PubMed 24130664

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas