End-to-end prognostication in colorectal cancer by deep learning: a retrospective, multicentre study

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Xiaofeng Jiang - , TUD Dresden University of Technology, RWTH Aachen University (Author)
  • Michael Hoffmeister - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Hermann Brenner - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Hannah Sophie Muti - , Else Kröner Fresenius Center for Digital Health (Author)
  • Tanwei Yuan - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Sebastian Foersch - , University Medical Center Mainz (Author)
  • Nicholas P. West - , University of Leeds (Author)
  • Alexander Brobeil - , Heidelberg University  (Author)
  • Jitendra Jonnagaddala - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Nicholas Hawkins - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Robyn L. Ward - , University of New South Wales, University of Sydney (Author)
  • Titus J. Brinker - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Oliver Lester Saldanha - , Else Kröner Fresenius Center for Digital Health, University Hospital Aachen (Author)
  • Jia Ke - , Sun Yat-Sen University (Author)
  • Wolfram Müller - (Author)
  • Heike I. Grabsch - , University of Leeds, Maastricht University Medical Centre (UMC+) (Author)
  • Philip Quirke - , University of Leeds (Author)
  • Daniel Truhn - , RWTH Aachen University (Author)
  • Jakob Nikolas Kather - , Else Kröner Fresenius Center for Digital Health, Department of Internal Medicine I, RWTH Aachen University, University of Leeds, Heidelberg University  (Author)

Abstract

Background: Precise prognosis prediction in patients with colorectal cancer (ie, forecasting survival) is pivotal for individualised treatment and care. Histopathological tissue slides of colorectal cancer specimens contain rich prognostically relevant information. However, existing studies do not have multicentre external validation with real-world sample processing protocols, and algorithms are not yet widely used in clinical routine. Methods: In this retrospective, multicentre study, we collected tissue samples from four groups of patients with resected colorectal cancer from Australia, Germany, and the USA. We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based prognostic-stratification system for automatic prediction of overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with resected colorectal cancer. We used the model-predicted risk scores to stratify patients into different risk groups and compared survival outcomes between these groups. Additionally, we evaluated the prognostic value of these risk groups after adjusting for established prognostic variables. Findings: We trained and validated our model on a total of 4428 patients. We found that patients could be divided into high-risk and low-risk groups on the basis of the deep learning-based risk score. On the internal test set, the group with a high-risk score had a worse prognosis than the group with a low-risk score, as reflected by a hazard ratio (HR) of 4·50 (95% CI 3·33–6·09) for overall survival and 8·35 (5·06–13·78) for disease-specific survival (DSS). We found consistent performance across three large external test sets. In a test set of 1395 patients, the high-risk group had a lower DSS than the low-risk group, with an HR of 3·08 (2·44–3·89). In two additional test sets, the HRs for DSS were 2·23 (1·23–4·04) and 3·07 (1·78–5·3). We showed that the prognostic value of the deep learning-based risk score is independent of established clinical risk factors. Interpretation: Our findings indicate that attention-based self-supervised deep learning can robustly offer a prognosis on clinical outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer, generalising across different populations and serving as a potentially new prognostic tool in clinical decision making for colorectal cancer management. We release all source codes and trained models under an open-source licence, allowing other researchers to reuse and build upon our work. Funding: The German Federal Ministry of Health, the Max-Eder-Programme of German Cancer Aid, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the German Academic Exchange Service, and the EU.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e33-e43
JournalThe Lancet Digital Health
Volume6
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 38123254

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis, Prognosis, Humans, Risk Factors, Retrospective Studies, Deep Learning