Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Beijing Fang - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Oldrich Rakovec - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Rohini Kumar - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Chair of Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

Large floods, which affect multiple regions simultaneously, pose substantial risks to lives and economies. In a warmer climate, increased precipitation extremes and reduced snowmelt are expected to alter flood characteristics, but how the dynamics of large floods across Europe will evolve under climate change remains unclear. By jointly assessing projected changes in the timing, spatial extent and volume of large floods in a warmer world, here we show that earlier snowmelt generally leads to earlier floods, while increasing precipitation contributions attenuate flood seasonality. Although continental-scale averages suggest limited change, they mask substantial regional heterogeneity. In western Europe, projected increases in heavy precipitation result in larger flood extents and volumes. In contrast, reduced snowmelt dominates changes in the largest floods in northern Europe, with localized shifts from snowmelt-driven to rainfall-driven floods. These regionally diverse responses of large floods to climate change should be considered in transnational flood risk management across Europe.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number717
JournalCommunications Earth & Environment
Volume6
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321858

Keywords