OBJECTIVE To search for an optimal derivative of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) identifying patients at risk of incidental prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS In all, 693 patients who underwent transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) with a normal digital rectal examination, no history of prostate cancer and a PSA level of 2.5-10 ng/mL were studied. The total PSA (tPSA), percentage of free/total PSA (%fPSA), complexed PSA (cPSA), PSA density, cPSA density and the ratio of fPSA to cPSA were measured. Specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values were determined for all possible threshold values indicating the risk of incidental prostate cancer (T1a or T1b). Furthermore, the patients were subdivided according to age and the presence of an indwelling transurethral catheter. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were compared. RESULTS In the whole sample, the %fPSA was the best test predicting all incidental prostate cancers (AUC 0.618, reference: tPSA 0.494), whereas cPSA density was the best predictor of T1b disease (AUC 0.720, reference: tPSA 0.548). Stratification by age did not meaningfully alter the results, the presence of a transurethral catheter, however, was associated with a superiority of tests based on fPSA (AUC 0.620-0.670) compared with tests based on tPSA or cPSA (AUC 0.421-0.581). CONCLUSION Replacing tPSA by PSA derivatives (%fPSA or cPSA density) and stratifying by the presence of an indwelling transurethral catheter may improve the prediction of the risk of incidental prostate cancer and spare unnecessary biopsies before TURP in the tPSA range 2.5-10 ng/mL.