Derivation of one- and two-factor experience curves for electrolysis technologies

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Abstract

Green hydrogen is seen as a promising energy carrier contributing to the decarbonization of the energy system. The competitiveness of green hydrogen compared to conventional produced (grey) hydrogen strongly depends on the investment cost of electrolysers and the costs of required green electricity. Accordingly, the expected investment costs and the efficiency of the production process for electrolysis technologies will play a decisive role. Experience curves can help estimate these crucial key parameters better. This paper applies experience curves to electrolysis technologies to enhance the understanding of these developments, specifically for alkaline, proton exchange membranes and solid oxide electrolysis. Experience rates are estimated using one- and two-factor experience curves for CAPEX and one-factor experience curves for electricity consumption. An independent and extensive database of CAPEX, electrical consumption and cumulative installed capacity was developed. Additionally, two different time frames and different data handling techniques are applied to understand the impact on the experience rates and the fit of the experience curve to the data provided. Based on the extensive database developed, CAPEX experience rates for the technologies range from 7%–21%, depending on the technology. In almost all cases, a two-factor experience curve analysis reduces the experience rate based on the cumulative installed capacity with the experience rate based on the size ranging between 7.4-10.2 % for all technologies. Lastly, the experience curve of the electrical consumption expects a reduction of around 1-3.5 % with each doubling of the capacity.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)105-116
Number of pages12
JournalInternational journal of hydrogen energy
Volume89
Early online date26 Sept 2024
Publication statusPublished - 4 Nov 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-7170-3596/work/166324502
ORCID /0000-0002-0190-9895/work/168328329
Scopus 85204806697
Mendeley 14bc74dd-9336-31ea-ba30-032d168d1b6e

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • Alkaline electrolysis, CAPEX, Electrical consumption, Experience curve, Learning curve, Power-to-gas (ptG), Proton exchange membrane electrolysis, Solid oxide electrolysis, Technological learning