Demonic Variance and a Non-Determinism Score for Markov Decision Processes

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Abstract

This paper studies the influence of probabilism and non-determinism on some quantitative aspect X of the execution of a system modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). To this end, the novel notion of demonic variance is introduced: For a random variable X in an MDP M, it is defined as 1/2 times the maximal expected squared distance of the values of X in two independent execution of M in which also the non-deterministic choices are resolved independently by two distinct schedulers. It is shown that the demonic variance is between 1 and 2 times as large as the maximal variance of X in M that can be achieved by a single scheduler. This allows defining a non-determinism score for M and X measuring how strongly the difference of X in two executions of M can be influenced by the non-deterministic choices. Properties of MDPs M with extremal values of the non-determinism score are established. Further, the algorithmic problems of computing the maximal variance and the demonic variance are investigated for two random variables, namely weighted reachability and accumulated rewards. In the process, also the structure of schedulers maximizing the variance and of scheduler pairs realizing the demonic variance is analyzed.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication49th International Symposium on Mathematical Foundations of Computer Science (MFCS 2024)
EditorsRastislav Kralovic, Antonin Kucera
PublisherSchloss Dagstuhl- Leibniz-Zentrum fur Informatik GmbH, Dagstuhl Publishing
Pages79:1-79:15
Number of pages15
ISBN (electronic)978-3-95977-335-5
Publication statusPublished - 23 Aug 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesLeibniz international proceedings in informatics : LIPIcs
ISSN1868-8969

Conference

Title49th International Symposium on Mathematical Foundations of Computer Science
Abbreviated titleMFCS 204
Conference number49
Duration26 - 30 August 2024
Website
Degree of recognitionInternational event
LocationComenius University
CityBratislava
CountrySlovakia

External IDs

Scopus 85203358900
ORCID /0000-0003-4829-0476/work/185740144

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • Markov decision processes, non-determinism, probabilism, variance