CSAR: The cross-sectional autoregression model

Research output: Contribution to book/conference proceedings/anthology/reportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

The forecasting of time series data is an integral component for management, planning, and decision making. Following the Big Data trend, large amounts of time series data are available in many application domains. The highly dynamic and often noisy character of these domains in combination with the logistic problems of collecting data from a large number of data sources, imposes new requirements on the forecasting process. A constantly increasing number of time series has to be forecasted, preferably with low latency AND high accuracy. This is almost impossible, when keeping the traditional focus on creating one forecast model for each individual time series. In addition, often used forecasting approaches like ARIMA need complete historical data to train forecast models and fail if time series are intermittent. A method that addresses all these new requirements is the cross-sectional forecasting approach. It utilizes available data from many time series of the same domain in one single model, thus, missing values can be compensated and accurate forecast results can be calculated quickly. However, this approach is limited by a rigid training data selection and existing forecasting methods show that adaptability of the model to the data increases the forecast accuracy. Therefore, in this paper we present CSAR a model that extends the cross-sectional paradigm by adding more flexibility and allowing fine grained adaptations to the analyzed data. In this way, we achieve an increased forecast accuracy and thus a wider applicability.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2017 International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics, DSAA 2017
PublisherIEEE, New York [u. a.]
Pages232-241
Number of pages10
ISBN (electronic)9781509050048
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jul 2017
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

Series2017 IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA)
Volume2018-January

Conference

Title4th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics, DSAA 2017
Duration19 - 21 October 2017
CityTokyo
CountryJapan

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-8107-2775/work/142253530