Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Markus Amann - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Imrich Bertok - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Jens Borken-Kleefeld - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Janusz Cofala - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Chris Heyes - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Lena Höglund-Isaksson - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Zbigniew Klimont - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Binh Nguyen - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Maximilian Posch - , National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (Author)
  • Peter Rafaj - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Robert Sandler - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Wolfgang Schöpp - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Fabian Wagner - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Wilfried Winiwarter - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)

Abstract

Environmental policies in Europe have successfully eliminated the most visible and immediate harmful effects of air pollution in the last decades. However, there is ample and robust scientific evidence that even at present rates Europe's emissions to the atmosphere pose a significant threat to human health, ecosystems and the global climate, though in a less visible and immediate way. As many of the 'low hanging fruits' have been harvested by now, further action will place higher demands on economic resources, especially at a time when resources are strained by an economic crisis. In addition, interactions and interdependencies of the various measures could even lead to counter-productive outcomes of strategies if they are ignored.Integrated assessment models, such as the GAINS (Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, have been developed to identify portfolios of measures that improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least cost. Such models bring together scientific knowledge and quality-controlled data on future socio-economic driving forces of emissions, on the technical and economic features of the available emission control options, on the chemical transformation and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere, and the resulting impacts on human health and the environment. The GAINS model and its predecessor have been used to inform the key negotiations on air pollution control agreements in Europe during the last two decades.This paper describes the methodological approach of the GAINS model and its components. It presents a recent policy analysis that explores the likely future development of emissions and air quality in Europe in the absence of further policy measures, and assesses the potential and costs for further environmental improvements. To inform the forthcoming negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the paper discusses the implications of alternative formulations of environmental policy targets on a cost-effective allocation of further mitigation measures.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1489-1501
Number of pages13
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume26
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2011
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5465-8559/work/150883963

Keywords

Keywords

  • Air pollution, Convention on Long-range transboundary air pollution, Cost-effectiveness, Decision support, GAINS model, Integrated assessment, Science-policy interface