Artificial neural network small-sample-bias-corrections of the AR(1) parameter close to unit root

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

This paper introduces an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to estimate the autoregressive process AR(1) when the autocorrelation parameter is near one. Traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators suffer from biases in small samples, necessitating various correction methods proposed in the literature. The ANN, trained on simulated data, outperforms these methods due to its nonlinear structure. Unlike competitors requiring simulations for bias corrections based on specific sample sizes, the ANN directly incorporates sample size as input, eliminating the need for repeated simulations. Stability tests involve exploring different ANN architectures and activation functions and robustness to varying distributions of the process innovations. Empirical applications on financial and industrial data highlight significant differences among methods, with ANN estimates suggesting lower persistence than other approaches.

Details

Original languageEnglish
JournalStatistica Neerlandica
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 31 Jul 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-8909-4861/work/171064877

Keywords

Keywords

  • bias correction, neural network, small sample bias