Anthropogenic enhancement of subsurface soil moisture droughts

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Yansong Guan - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)
  • Xihui Gu - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China University of Geosciences, Shenzhen (Author)
  • Aiguo Dai - , State University of New York at Albany (Author)
  • Tianjun Zhou - , CAS - Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Author)
  • Xing Yuan - , CAS - Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Author)
  • Ashok K. Mishra - , Clemson University (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Yadu Pokhrel - , Michigan State University (Author)
  • Lunche Wang - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)
  • Jianfeng Li - , Chinese University of Hong Kong (Author)
  • Shengzhi Huang - , Xi'an University of Technology, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Author)
  • Sijia Luo - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)
  • Liangwei Li - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)
  • Dongdong Kong - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)
  • Xiang Zhang - , China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Author)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated soil moisture droughts globally, yet this exacerbation in their spatiotemporal evolution in terms of soil vertical structure remains unclear. Here we propose a Lagrangian four-dimensional tracking framework to identify a type of spatial (horizontal and vertical)–temporal contiguous drought events, that is, deep droughts characterized by bottom-heavy deep-dominated shapes, with more extensive moisture deficits in deep than surface soils. These deep droughts, accounting for a quarter of total events, are ignored in surface-based soil moisture monitoring. Both reanalyses and climate models show significantly increasing duration and intensity of the deep droughts over the past four decades, attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Relative to the past, future deep droughts are projected to become longer-lasting and more intense globally, with larger increases in deeper soil layers under higher-emission scenarios. These deep droughts hidden below the surface pose challenges for satellite-based agricultural drought monitoring and cause an underestimation of adverse impacts of droughts on ecosystems.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1355-1362
Number of pages8
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume15
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2025
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/205992891

Keywords