When environmental conditions change, species usually face three options: adaptation, range shifts, or extinction. In thewake of climate change, it is generally believed that range shifts are the norm in mobile species such as birds, resulting inpoleward range shifts. The European Bee-eater is a predominantly Mediterranean species which has expanded its rangeto higher latitudes over the last decades. Germany in particular has seen a surge in breeding pairs and foundation of newcolonies. However, while many experts suggest climate warming as the main driver behind this range expansion, an explicitquantifcation remains open. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to study the recent climatic niche suitability of theEuropean Bee-eater across Europe with a special focus on Germany and project its predicted Palaearctic breeding distributiononto the year 2050 using two global circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Models were able topredict the current European range of the species with some underestimated areas in Central and Eastern Europe, dependingon the selected model. We found a strong relationship between climatic suitable areas and estimated population sizes acrossEuropean countries that is refected in most algorithms. In particular, the German population size is in line with climatesuitability in the country suggesting a strong climate–population relationship and a high degree of niche flling. Most futurepredictions point to an ongoing northward expansion of the species while areas in Southern Europe and the Maghreb arearemain largely suitable. The strong climate–population relationship makes the European Bee-eater an appropriate indicatorspecies for climate change. Yet the high variability of modelling algorithms also call for caution of using these techniques without careful inspection