Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez - , Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, ETH Zurich, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) (Author)
  • Aglaé Jézéquel - , Université PSL (Author)
  • Flavio Lehner - , Cornell University, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Polar Bears International (Author)
  • Mathieu Vrac - , Université Paris-Saclay (Author)
  • Pascal Yiou - , Université Paris-Saclay (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number2145
JournalNature communications
Volume14
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2023
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

PubMed 37059735