Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Mats Mahnken - , Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Maxime Cailleret - , Aix-Marseille Université, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Author)
  • Alessio Collalti - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Tuscia University, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Author)
  • Carlo Trotta - , Tuscia University, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Author)
  • Corrado Biondo - , Tuscia University, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Author)
  • Ettore D'Andrea - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR) (Author)
  • Daniela Dalmonech - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR) (Author)
  • Gina Marano - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Annikki Mäkelä - , University of Helsinki (Author)
  • Francesco Minunno - , University of Helsinki (Author)
  • Mikko Peltoniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Volodymyr Trotsiuk - , Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Author)
  • Daniel Nadal-Sala - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, University of Barcelona (Author)
  • Santiago Sabaté - , University of Barcelona, CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Author)
  • Patrick Vallet - , Université Grenoble Alpes (Author)
  • Raphaël Aussenac - , Université Grenoble Alpes (Author)
  • David R. Cameron - , Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Author)
  • Friedrich J. Bohn - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Rüdiger Grote - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Andrey L.D. Augustynczik - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Rasoul Yousefpour - , University of Freiburg, University of Toronto (Author)
  • Nica Huber - , ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Author)
  • Harald Bugmann - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Katarina Merganičová - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Slovak Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Jan Merganic - , Technical University in Zvolen (Author)
  • Peter Valent - , Technical University in Zvolen (Author)
  • Petra Lasch-Born - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Florian Hartig - , University of Regensburg (Author)
  • Iliusi D. Vega del Valle - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Jan Volkholz - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Martin Gutsch - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Giorgio Matteucci - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR) (Author)
  • Jan Krejza - , Czech Academy of Sciences, Mendel University in Brno (Author)
  • Andreas Ibrom - , Technical University of Denmark (Author)
  • Henning Meesenburg - , Northwest German Forest Research Institute (Author)
  • Thomas Rötzer - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen - , Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production (Author)
  • Ernst van der Maaten - , Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production (Author)
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)

Abstract

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6921-6943
Number of pages23
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume2022
Issue number28(23)
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2022
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 36117412
ORCID /0000-0002-2942-9180/work/153107706
ORCID /0000-0002-5218-6682/work/153110556

Keywords

Keywords

  • eddy-covariance, gap model, model ensemble, model evaluation, process-based modeling, terrestrial carbon dynamics