A typology of compound weather and climate events

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Jakob Zscheischler - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Olivia Martius - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Seth Westra - , University of Adelaide (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , University of Reading (Author)
  • Colin Raymond - , Columbia University, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Radley M. Horton - , Columbia University (Author)
  • Bart van den Hurk - , Deltares, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) (Author)
  • Amir AghaKouchak - , University of California at Irvine (Author)
  • Aglaé Jézéquel - , École des Ponts ParisTech, Ecole Normale Superieure (Author)
  • Miguel D. Mahecha - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Leipzig University (Author)
  • Douglas Maraun - , University of Graz (Author)
  • Alexandre M. Ramos - , University of Lisbon (Author)
  • Nina N. Ridder - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Wim Thiery - , Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Author)
  • Edoardo Vignotto - , University of Geneva (Author)

Abstract

Compound weather and climate events describe combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Although many climate-related disasters are caused by compound events, the understanding, analysis, quantification and prediction of such events is still in its infancy. In this Review, we propose a typology of compound events and suggest analytical and modelling approaches to aid in their investigation. We organize the highly diverse compound event types according to four themes: preconditioned, where a weather-driven or climate-driven precondition aggravates the impacts of a hazard; multivariate, where multiple drivers and/or hazards lead to an impact; temporally compounding, where a succession of hazards leads to an impact; and spatially compounding, where hazards in multiple connected locations cause an aggregated impact. Through structuring compound events and their respective analysis tools, the typology offers an opportunity for deeper insight into their mechanisms and impacts, benefiting the development of effective adaptation strategies. However, the complex nature of compound events results in some cases inevitably fitting into more than one class, necessitating soft boundaries within the typology. Future work must homogenize the available analytical approaches into a robust toolset for compound-event analysis under present and future climate conditions.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)333-347
Number of pages15
JournalNature Reviews Earth and Environment
Volume1
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes