A predictive spatial model to quantify the risk of air-travel-associated dengue importation into the United States and Europe

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Lauren M. Gardner - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • David Fajardo - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • S. Travis Waller - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Ophelia Wang - , University of Texas at Austin (Author)
  • Sahotra Sarkar - , University of Texas at Austin (Author)

Abstract

The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has been on a constant rise in the United States and Europe over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue contributes to the increasing number of dengue cases. This paper reports results from a network-based regression model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel distances, predictive species distribution models (for the vector species), and infection data to quantify the relative risk of importing travel-acquired dengue infections into the US and Europe from dengue-endemic regions. Given the necessary data, this model can be used to identify optimal locations (origin cities, destination airports, etc.) for dengue surveillance. The model can be extended to other geographical regions and vector-borne diseases, as well as other network-based processes.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number103679
JournalJournal of Tropical Medicine
Volume2012
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543859

Keywords