A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Ana Bastos - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Sebastian Sippel - , ETH Zurich, Leipzig University (Author)
  • Dorothea Frank - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Miguel D. Mahecha - , Leipzig University, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig (Author)
  • Sönke Zaehle - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Markus Reichstein - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig (Author)

Abstract

Extreme weather and climate events have direct impacts on ecosystems and can further trigger ecosystem disturbances, often having impacts that last longer than the event’s duration. The projected increased frequency or intensity of extreme events could thus amplify ecological impacts and reduce the biosphere’s CO2 mitigation potential, but multiple feedbacks between ecosystems and climate extremes are often not considered in risk assessments. In this Perspective, we propose a systemic framework to analyse the causal relationships between climate extremes, disturbance regimes and ecosystems, building on two broadly used perspectives: climate risk assessment and disturbance ecology. Each has strengths and limitations, as each perspective places a different — and partly disjointed — focus on the physical and ecological processes that drive high-impact ecological events. We unify these approaches into a framework (compound ecoclimatic events) that decomposes events into climatic drivers, stressors, environmental factors, impacts and their sources of variability, and further incorporates feedbacks between ecosystem processes and stressors. This framework can be used to develop ecoclimatic storylines to better understand the role of each factor in influencing high-impact events; to incorporate uncertainties associated with internal climate and ecological variability, with scenario definitions, and with epistemic uncertainties; and to quantify the human fingerprint on high-impact ecoclimatic events.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)333-350
Number of pages18
JournalNature Reviews Earth and Environment
Volume4
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - May 2023
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes