A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series.
Details
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 213-225 |
Number of pages | 13 |
Journal | Energy policy |
Volume | 59 |
Publication status | Published - Aug 2013 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
External IDs
ORCID | /0000-0001-7170-3596/work/142241602 |
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Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- Electricity price modeling, Merit order effect, Wind power generation