Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung

Beitragende

  • Yiwei Jian - , Peking University, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Xuhui Wang - , Peking University (Autor:in)
  • Jonas Jägermeyr - , Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Autor:in)
  • Philippe Ciais - , Université Paris-Saclay (Autor:in)
  • Christoph Müller - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Tao Li - , International Rice Research Institute (Autor:in)
  • Kun Cheng - , Nanjing Agricultural University (Autor:in)
  • Pengfu Hou - , Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Jianliang Huang - , Huazhong Agricultural University (Autor:in)
  • Shan Huang - , Jiangxi Agricultural University (Autor:in)
  • Yu Jiang - , Nanjing Agricultural University (Autor:in)
  • Bin Wang - , Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China (Autor:in)
  • Zhenwei Song - , Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China (Autor:in)
  • Zuolin Zhang - , Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Peng Zhu - , The University of Hong Kong (Autor:in)
  • Feng Zhou - , Hohai University, Peking University (Autor:in)

Abstract

Complex and spatially varying warming impacts on rice yield hinder climate change impact assessments on food security. To address this issue, we compiled a global dataset of field-warming experiments (n = 214) and analyzed stage-specific crop responses to temperature variations. Results show that exposures to high (30° to 35°C) and extreme high (>35°C) temperatures are the dominant drivers of warming-induced rice yield losses, primarily through harvest index reductions. One additional exposure day above 30°C during the reproductive stage reduces rice yields by 1.1 to 1.8%. In contrast, current global gridded crop models underestimate this sensitivity, simulating only 0.1 to 1.3% yield loss per exposure day. After adjusting the model biases, we estimate that global rice yield losses decrease by 8.1% under 1°C of global warming, approximately twice the unadjusted estimates, with South and Southeast Asia being the most vulnerable regions. Our results highlight the critical role of high-temperature exposure in shaping warming impacts on rice yield.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummereaed9226
FachzeitschriftScience advances
Jahrgang12
Ausgabenummer31
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 31 Juli 2026
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 42525772
ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/226837862

Schlagworte

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete