The outbreak of COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has already become an unprecedented global pandemic. However, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, especially the protected SARS-CoV-2 RNA (pRNA) with infectious particles in waterways, is still largely unexplored. In this study, we developed a model to estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission from the risk source in the excretion of patients to the final exposure in surface water. The model simulated the spatial and temporal distribution of the viral pRNA concentrations in the surface water of the Elbe watershed from March 2020 to January 2021. The results show that the WWTPs with the maximum capacity of >10,000 population equivalents were responsible for 95% of the viral load discharged into the surface water. We estimated the pRNA concentrations in surface water to be 1.33 × 10⁻² copies·L⁻¹ on average in the watershed based on the model simulation on viral transmission. It had considerable variations in spatial and temporal scales, which are dominantly controlled by epidemic situations and virus transport with decay in water, respectively. A quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted to estimate the viral infection probability from surface water ingestion with consideration of the influence of toilet usage frequency and gender/age population groups. All the infection probabilities in the study period were lower than the reference risk levels of 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻⁵. The individuals aged 15–34 years had the highest infection probability of 4.86 × 10⁻⁹ on average from surface water ingestion during swimming activities. The data provided herein suggest that the low pRNA concentrations and infection probability reflected that the waterways were unlikely to be a significant transmission route for SARS-CoV-2.