The impacts of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on global wheat production and trade
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Kurzartikel (Letter) / Leserbrief mit Originaldaten › Beigetragen › Begutachtung
Beitragende
Abstract
Concurrent climate extremes in major crop-producing regions, such as synchronised droughts or heatwaves, threaten food security by causing simultaneous harvest failures. Such multi-breadbasket failures disrupt global food trade, particularly affecting import-dependent countries. While the probability and drivers of multi-breadbasket failures have previously been studied, the effects on importing countries via agricultural trade are less clear. Here, we combine national agricultural statistics, bilateral trade information, and historical climate data to quantify how simultaneous heatwaves or droughts impact global wheat production and exports. We find that concurrent heatwaves in major wheat producers significantly reduce production and exports, particularly in predominantly rainfed countries. Country-specific analyses reveal that production in key trade partners of most wheat-importing countries is highly sensitive to both heatwaves and droughts, however impacts on imports and domestic supply are more varied. Using a composite risk index, we highlight individual vulnerabilities of wheat-importing countries to production shocks due to compounding extremes.
Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | 154010 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Environmental research letters |
| Jahrgang | 21 |
| Ausgabenummer | 15 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - Aug. 2026 |
| Peer-Review-Status | Ja |
Externe IDs
| ORCID | /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/226837860 |
|---|
Schlagworte
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
- SDG 2 – Kein Hunger - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
- SDG 3 – Gute Gesundheit und Wohlergehen - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
- SDG 7 – Erschwingliche und saubere Energie - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
- SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Erneuerbare Energien, Nachhaltigkeit und Umwelt - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
- Allgemeine Umweltwissenschaft - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
- Öffentliche Gesundheit, Umwelt- und Arbeitsmedizin - agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures
Schlagwörter
- agriculture, climate extreme events, compound events, food trade, multi-breadbasket failures