Statistical Model Checking Beyond Means: Quantiles, CVaR, and the DKW Inequality

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Konferenzbericht/Sammelband/GutachtenBeitrag in KonferenzbandBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

Statistical model checking (SMC) randomly samples probabilistic models to approximate quantities of interest with statistical error
guarantees. It is traditionally used to estimate probabilities and expected rewards, i.e. means of different random variables on paths. In this paper, we develop methods using the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-Massart inequality (DKW) to extend SMC beyond means to compute quantities such as quantiles, conditional value-at-risk, and entropic risk. The DKW provides confidence bounds on the random variable’s entire cumulative distribution function, a much more versatile guarantee compared to the statistical methods prevalent in SMC today. We have implemented support for computing new quantities via the DKW in the modes simulator of the Modest Toolset. We highlight the implementation and its versatility on benchmarks from the quantitative verification literature.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelQuantitative Evaluation of Systems and Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems
Redakteure/-innenPavithra Prabhakar, Andrea Vandin
Herausgeber (Verlag)Springer, Cham
Seiten83-94
Seitenumfang12
ISBN (elektronisch)978-3-032-05792-1
ISBN (Print)978-3-032-05791-4
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2026
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Publikationsreihe

ReiheLecture Notes in Computer Science
Band16143
ISSN0302-9743

Konferenz

Titel2nd International Joint Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems & Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems
KurztitelQEST+FORMATS 2025
Veranstaltungsnummer2
Beschreibungpart of CONFEST 2025
Dauer26 - 28 August 2025
Webseite
BekanntheitsgradInternationale Veranstaltung
OrtAarhus University
StadtAarhus
LandDänemark

Externe IDs

Scopus 105020206991

Schlagworte