Quick estimates of travel time reliability: Analytical and numerical results

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Konferenzbericht/Sammelband/GutachtenBeitrag in KonferenzbandBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Manwo Ng - , University of Texas at Austin (Autor:in)
  • W. Y. Szeto - , National University of Singapore (Autor:in)
  • S. Travis Waller - , University of Texas at Austin (Autor:in)

Abstract

An assumption that pervades the current transportation system reliability assessment literature is that probability distributions of the sources of uncertainty (i.e. road capacities and travel demand) are known explicitly. However, this distribution may be unavailable (inaccurate) in reality as we may have no (insufficient) data to calibrate the distribution. We relax this assumption and present a method to assess travel time reliability that is distribution-free, i.e. the methodology only requires that the mean values of capacity and demand are known and that they reside in a bounded and known interval. Moreover, the proposed methodology eliminates the need to specify the dependence structure among the random variables. Instead of deriving exact probabilities on travel times exceeding certain thresholds via computationally intensive methods, we develop analytical probability inequalities to quickly obtain bounds on the desired probability. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the derived bounds are nontrivial for the most interesting cases.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelProceedings of the 14th HKSTS International Conference
Seiten337-346
Seitenumfang10
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2009
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Publikationsreihe

ReiheProceedings of the HKSTS International Conference: Transportation and Geography
Band1

Konferenz

Titel14th HKSTS International Conference: Transportation and Geography
Dauer10 - 12 Dezember 2009
StadtKowloon
LandHongkong

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543850

Schlagworte

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete