UNLABELLED: Despite ongoing efforts to develop new treatment options, the prognosis for patients with inoperable esophageal carcinoma is still poor and the reliability of individual therapy outcome prediction based on clinical parameters is not convincing. The aim of this work was to investigate whether PET can provide independent prognostic information in such a patient group and whether the tumor-to-blood standardized uptake ratio (SUR) can improve the prognostic value of tracer uptake values.

METHODS: (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in 130 consecutive patients (mean age ± SD, 63 ± 11 y; 113 men, 17 women) with newly diagnosed esophageal cancer before definitive radiochemotherapy. In the PET images, the metabolically active tumor volume (MTV) of the primary tumor was delineated with an adaptive threshold method. The blood standardized uptake value (SUV) was determined by manually delineating the aorta in the low-dose CT. SUR values were computed as the ratio of tumor SUV and blood SUV. Uptake values were scan-time-corrected to 60 min after injection. Univariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis with respect to overall survival (OS), distant metastases-free survival (DM), and locoregional tumor control (LRC) was performed. Additionally, a multivariate Cox regression including clinically relevant parameters was performed.

RESULTS: In multivariate Cox regression with respect to OS, including T stage, N stage, and smoking state, MTV- and SUR-based parameters were significant prognostic factors for OS with similar effect size. Multivariate analysis with respect to DM revealed smoking state, MTV, and all SUR-based parameters as significant prognostic factors. The highest hazard ratios (HRs) were found for scan-time-corrected maximum SUR (HR = 3.9) and mean SUR (HR = 4.4). None of the PET parameters was associated with LRC. Univariate Cox regression with respect to LRC revealed a significant effect only for N stage greater than 0 (P = 0.048).

CONCLUSION: PET provides independent prognostic information for OS and DM but not for LRC in patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma treated with definitive radiochemotherapy in addition to clinical parameters. Among the investigated uptake-based parameters, only SUR was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DM. These results suggest that the prognostic value of tracer uptake can be improved when characterized by SUR instead of SUV. Further investigations are required to confirm these preliminary results.