Multi-Agent Opinion Pooling by Voting for Bins: Simulations and Characterization

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Konferenzbericht/Sammelband/GutachtenBeitrag in KonferenzbandBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

In the context of aggregating probabilistic opinions from multiple agents facing severe uncertainty, imprecise probabilities are commonly utilized to represent their beliefs. Voting for Bins (VfB) is a novel voting method enabling agents with imprecise probabilistic beliefs to vote for sets of probability intervals, or bins. Inspired by the Condorcet Jury Theorem, VfB allows for the derivation of probabilistic assurances regarding the likelihood of identifying the correct alternative among a set, assuming the independence of the electorate and given estimates of the agents’ average competence levels. VfB also facilitates direct computation of the maximal number of bins, thereby determining the precision permitted in the voting process. In this work, we compare VfB’s performance, assessed by assigning an epistemic value to each aggregate, against standard imprecise pooling methods through multi-agent voting simulations. To the best of our knowledge, this work provides the first empirical comparison of imprecise pooling methods utilizing parameterized imprecise beliefs generated through a randomized process. Furthermore, we formally integrate VfB into the probabilistic pooling framework by examining which desirable properties, identified in the pooling literature, are satisfied by VfB.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelAdvances in Practical Applications of Agents, Multi-Agent Systems, and Digital Twins: The PAAMS Collection
Redakteure/-innenPhilippe Mathieu, Fernando De la Prieta
Seiten49–60
Seitenumfang12
ISBN (elektronisch)978-3-031-70415-4
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Publikationsreihe

ReiheLecture Notes in Computer Science
Band15157
ISSN0302-9743

Externe IDs

Scopus 85210320412

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • Agent-based Simulation, Jury Theorem, Opinion Pooling