Modelling the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 in African countries

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Dephney Mathebula - , Universität von Südafrika (Autor:in)
  • Abigail Amankwah - , University of Cape Coast Ghana (Autor:in)
  • Kossi Amouzouvi - , Center for Scalable Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence (ScaDS.AI Dresden), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (Autor:in)
  • Kétévi Adiklè Assamagan - , Brookhaven National Laboratory (Autor:in)
  • Somiealo Azote - , Syracuse University (Autor:in)
  • Jesutofunmi Ayo Fajemisin - , University of South Florida (Autor:in)
  • Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankame - , University of the Witwatersrand (Autor:in)
  • Aluwani Guga - , University of Cape Town (Autor:in)
  • Moses Kamwela - , Lusaka Apex Medical University (Autor:in)
  • Mulape Mutule Kanduza - , Cancer Diseases Hospital (Autor:in)
  • Toivo Samuel Mabote - , Rhodes University (Autor:in)
  • Francisco Fenias Macucule - , Universität von Südafrika (Autor:in)
  • Azwinndini Muronga - , Nelson Mandela University (Autor:in)
  • Ann Njeri - , Newcastle University (Autor:in)
  • Michael Olusegun Oluwole - , University of Ibadan (Autor:in)
  • Cláudio Moisés Paulo - , Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (Autor:in)

Abstract

The rapid development of vaccines to combat the spread of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is a great scientific achievement. Before the development of the COVID-19 vaccines, most studies capitalized on the available data that did not include pharmaceutical measures. Such studies focused on the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, sanitation, use of face masks, and lockdowns to study the spread of COVID-19. In this study, we used the SIDARTHE-V model, an extension of the SIDARTHE model, which includes vaccination rollouts. We studied the impact of vaccination on the severity of the virus, specifically focusing on death rates, in African countries. The SIRDATHE-V model parameters were extracted by simultaneously fitting the COVID-19 cumulative data of deaths, recoveries, active cases, and full vaccinations reported by the governments of Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Togo, and Zambia. Using South Africa as a case study, our analysis showed that the cumulative death rates declined drastically with the increased extent of vaccination drives. Whilst the infection rates sometimes increased with the arrival of new coronavirus variants, the death rates did not increase as they did before vaccination.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummere1012456
FachzeitschriftPLOS computational biology
Jahrgang20
Ausgabenummer10
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Okt. 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 39441851