Infinitely stochastic micro reserving

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

Stochastic forecasting and risk valuation are now front burners in a list of applied and theoretical sciences. In this work, we propose an unconventional tool for stochastic prediction of future expenses based on the individual (micro) developments of recorded events. Considering a firm, enterprise, institution, or any entity, which possesses knowledge about particular historical events, there might be a whole series of several related subevents: payments or losses spread over time. This all leads to an infinitely stochastic process at the end. The aim, therefore, lies in predicting future subevent flows coming from already reported, occurred but not reported, and yet not occurred events. The emerging forecasting methodology involves marked time-varying Hawkes process with marks being other time-varying Hawkes processes. The estimated parameters of the model are proved to be consistent and asymptotically normal under simple and easily verifiable assumptions. The empirical properties are investigated through a simulation study. In the practical part of our exploration, we elaborate a specific actuarial application for micro claims reserving.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)30-58
Seitenumfang29
FachzeitschriftInsurance: Mathematics & economics
Jahrgang100
Frühes Online-DatumApr. 2021
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Sept. 2021
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-8909-4861/work/171064887
Mendeley 6f92efb5-2bdf-3612-b04f-3d5504d1b740
unpaywall 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.04.007

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • Consistency, Dynamic panel data, Hawkes process, Marked point process, Micro claims reserving, Risk valuation, Stochastic prediction, Time-varying model