Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftÜbersichtsartikel (Review)BeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick - , Australian National University (Autor:in)
  • Lisa V. Alexander - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Andrew D. King - , University of Melbourne (Autor:in)
  • Sarah F. Kew - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Autor:in)
  • Sjoukje Y. Philip - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Autor:in)
  • Clair Barnes - , Imperial College London (Autor:in)
  • Douglas Maraun - , Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz (Autor:in)
  • Rupert F. Stuart-Smith - , University of Oxford (Autor:in)
  • Aglaé Jézéquel - , École des Ponts ParisTech, Ecole Normale Superieure (Autor:in)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Samantha Burgess - , European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Bonn (Autor:in)
  • Erich Fischer - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Gabriele C. Hegerl - , University of Edinburgh (Autor:in)
  • Joyce Kimutai - , Imperial College London, Kenya Meteorological Department (Autor:in)
  • Gerbrand Koren - , Utrecht University (Autor:in)
  • Kamoru Abiodun Lawal - , African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development, University of Cape Town, African Aviation and Aerospace University (AAAU) Abuja (Autor:in)
  • Seung Ki Min - , Pohang University of Science and Technology, Yonsei University (Autor:in)
  • Mark New - , University of Cape Town, University of Bristol (Autor:in)
  • Romaric C. Odoulami - , University of Cape Town (Autor:in)
  • Christina M. Patricola - , Iowa State University (Autor:in)
  • Izidine Pinto - , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Autor:in)
  • Aurélien Ribes - , Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (Autor:in)
  • Tiffany A. Shaw - , The University of Chicago (Autor:in)
  • Wim Thiery - , Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Autor:in)
  • Blair Trewin - , Bureau of Meteorology Australia (Autor:in)
  • Robert Vautard - , Université Paris-Saclay (Autor:in)
  • Michael Wehner - , Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer1455023
FachzeitschriftFrontiers in Climate
Jahrgang6
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321866

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • attribution, climate change, climate models (regional and global), climate observations, climate science communication, extreme event attribution, impact attribution