The climate change is leading to a significant increase in temperatures and dry periods in spring, for example in parts of middle and north Europe. Thus, the important factor for tree growth, the water availability, decreases on forest sites. It is to be expected that the successful establishment of pioneer tree species as pre-forests on large damaged areas will considerable be limited in the future. The phases of germination and establishment are the most dangerous phase in the life of trees. In this greenhouse study, we tested how different microsite conditions (open soil, moss and litter cover as well as different shading) under reduced water availability influence establishment success and growth of Betula pendula, Populus tremula and Salix caprea. The initial high germination success were reduced to 14%, 7% and 12% for Populus tremula, Salix caprea and Betula pendula, respectively, and the growth were significantly slower when the relevant soil water resource was just above the permanent wilting point. Therefore, in the first year the germination and establishment is linked to persistent moist conditions. If the soil dries out during germination, e.g. if there is no watering for more than 3 weeks, all seedlings died. Equivalent germination microsites (shading or ground cover) with comparable possible seedling densities to the moist open soil does not exist under water stress. Although moss and litter cover retain longer soil moisture under extremely dry conditions and guarantee significantly better seedling development than on open soil, initially significantly fewer seeds germinate on these substrate types. Radiation shows no influence on germination and seedling survival. The seedlings are able to survive radiation conditions of 3% and 27% of open area radiation. This makes establishment possible under (remaining) light canopy, at the edge of damaged areas or in small islands of remaining shelter trees on damaged areas. However, radiation had a significant effect on growth. With increasing radiation, shoot lengths and above ground biomasses are higher and the root collar diameter larger. Overall, Betula pendula is the most drought stress resistant of the tested tree species. While Populus tremula and Salix caprea already had problems establishing themselves on dry sites, the problem will become more serious under climate change. The lack of moist, vegetation-free open soils will result in a significant reduction of establishment success for tested pioneer tree species in climate change.