Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Oldrich Rakovec - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Dominik L. Schumacher - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Rohini Kumar - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Stephan Thober - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Luis Samaniego - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Universität Potsdam (Autor:in)
  • Sonia I. Seneviratne - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)1100-1107
Seitenumfang8
FachzeitschriftNature geoscience
Jahrgang17
Ausgabenummer11
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Nov. 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321868

Schlagworte